American consumers are feeling more confident ahead of Election Day, but they’re still not as confident as they were before the pandemic, according to a new survey from The Conference Board, a business research group.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index surged to 108.7 in October from 99.2 in September. That’s the biggest monthly gain since March 2021 and blows past analysts’ forecast of 99.3.
“Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions turned positive. Views on the current availability of jobs rebounded after several months of weakness, potentially reflecting better labor market data,” said Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.
“Compared to last month, consumers were substantially more optimistic about future business conditions and remained positive about future income. Also, for the first time since July 2023, they showed some cautious optimism about future job availability,” Peterson added.
The final jobs report before the election is slated to come out Friday, providing a pivotal snapshot of the labor market in an election where the economy is a top issue for voters.
Vice President Harris has sought to make the case for the Biden administration’s handling of the post-pandemic recovery, during which the labor market held strong despite widespread recession fears.
But voters still largely tell pollsters they trust former President Trump’s handling of the economy more, even as experts predict his economic policies — including hiking tariffs — could balloon the national debt roughly twice as much as Harris’ policies would and fuel inflation.
The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes put downward pressure on pandemic-induced inflation, which peaked at 9.1 percent in March 2022, but also raised borrowing costs for consumers and businesses.
Inflation has since fallen to 2.4 percent in September, within striking distance of the central bank’s 2 percent target. The Fed’s long-awaited interest rate cuts last month brought some relief for consumers carrying credit card debt or looking to secure a mortgage or car loan.
In another sign of consumer’s increasing confidence, Matthew Shay, president and CEO National Retail Federation, told reporters this month that the organization is forecasting a record holiday shopping season.
“Overall, the economy has been in a good place this year,” Shay said. “We know going into the holiday season that consumers continue to show resilience, and they show strength in their spending.”
