Fantasy Football Storylines to watch in Week 14: Yes, there are still reasons to keep Tyreek Hill in lineups

Thanksgiving was like our mini-bye week.

We put in some work days ahead of the holiday to prep for the games. By Thursday, other than injury news, there weren’t too many questions on how to approach the slate. So we could relax. Like I said before the games kicked off, I could watch the games like all of you. The same vibes carried into Sunday. However, it’s time to come out of our collective food comas, as the most important weeks of the fantasy season are nearly here.

For most leagues, Week 14 is the final set of games before the playoffs. If you’re on the bubble, every point matters. League leaders should be stockpiling their rosters for the stretch run. Every bit of news is worth considering. To help, let’s dive into the top storylines from the non-Thanksgiving Week 13 contests and their relevant fantasy takeaways.

Just when I was out on the Panthers …

If I didn’t know any better, I’d say Carolina’s starting QB on Sunday was a former first overall pick.

Of course, let’s forget what happened shortly after this sequence. Besides, the Panthers need a higher draft pick in 2025 anyway. But what we can’t ignore is this resurgence in Carolina’s offense with Bryce Young. The same QB who couldn’t complete a TD pass in his first two starts this season has at least one in every game since he regained his starting job in Week 8. Highlights from Charlotte aren’t just Xavier Legette talking. And it’s not just big plays at the end of games requiring us to relitigate Young as a passer.

• Pass Rate Over Expected: -10.0% (Weeks 1-2), +6.0% (Weeks 12-13)

• Passing Success Rate: 25.8%, 44.0%

• Third-Down Conversion Rate: 9.1%, 37.9%

Young looked like a completely different passer (derogatory) in his first two games. He had to jump to complete a pass one yard in front of the LOS in Week 2. Consequently, his regression rippled through the rest of the offense. The Panthers averaged the second-fewest plays per game (50.5) with just 176.0 yards to show for their efforts. Luckily, the numbers suggest his down-to-down efficiency has improved, with greater passing success and third-down conversion rates. The tape backs up the data, too.

It sounds simplistic, but Young standing and delivering a strike from a collapsing pocket is the development the Panthers needed to see. Through two weeks, Young had only completed three passes when facing pressure. He completed a fourth, but it went to a Saints’ defender. Carolina led the league in three-and-out drives with 15 failed offensive series. But now, HC Dave Canales has opened up the playbook.

The allure of Canales was his revival of Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield in consecutive seasons. His use of play-action concepts fitting his QB’s style turned the former Seahawks’ coordinator into a “QB whisperer.” Accordingly, Young’s 17.3% play-action rate since Week 8 (ninth-highest) indicates the coach and QB are aligned. The results are proof of concept. Plus, we can see where the offense is heading to close out the ’24 season.

Young’s use of check-downs and letting them work after the catch will be critical to his and the offense’s growth. Having playmakers like Jonathon Brooks puts them on that path. The rookie only handled a third of the rush attempts, but his 3.83 yards per route run is a season-high for any Panthers’ RB. Couple Brooks’ elusiveness with the Panthers’ upcoming schedule (Eagles, Cowboys and Cardinals), a rusher with a hybrid skill set will keep the Panthers on track. His ability to break plays and Adam Thielen’s rapport with Young make them both FLEX considerations in deep-bench leagues as we head into the playoffs.

George Pickens: WR1? Well, maybe

George Pickens is the embodiment of the word “volatile.”

He can make a tough catch with multiple defenders in the area on one play. Then, on another, he’ll move the Steelers backward after committing a penalty. Actually, Pickens did both on one big gain against the Bengals earlier this week.

From taunting his rivals to fighting after a loss, there’s no shortage of highlights of Pittsburgh’s WR1. But 16 PPR PPG with Russell Wilson under center (ninth-most of any WR) is worth the weekly rollercoaster for fantasy managers. And for Steelers fans, his domination of the receiving opportunities should be a welcome sight after the loss of talent at the position since drafting Pickens in ’22.

• Target Share: 27.7% (5th out of 30 qualifying WRs – min. 20.0% target share)

• Air Yard Share: 46.4% (2nd)

• Explosive Play Rate: 21.7% (9th)

Pickens is on pace to reset his career highs in every receiving metric. His 90 targets lead the team. The next-closest skill player, TE Pat Freiermuth, has 47. However, Pickens’ season-long metrics aren’t as appealing when framing them from a week-to-week perspective. Since the QB change, he’s had as many finishes inside the top 10 (2) as weeks outside of the top 40. How OC Arthur Smith deploys Pickens explains a lot of his volatility.

Pickens draws the tougher defensive matchups with lower-percentage throws each week. With almost no role from the slot or motion closer to the line of scrimmage pre-snap, Pickens has to line up and out-athlete the guy across from him. Honestly, now I (kind of) understand why he crashes out all the time. I mean, think about it. You’re the best option on your squad, and your primary job is to run downfield into traffic.

Pickens’ route tree from Sunday highlights the unpredictability of his results. Wilson either looks for him close to the LOS or deep down the field. At the same time, while everyone’s praising the former Seahawks’ signal-caller for surpassing 400 passing yards for the first time since 2019, let’s not forget how things looked the month beforehand.

Unfortunately, Wilson and company can’t face the Bengals every week. They’ll see them again in Week 18, but not after dueling with the Browns, Eagles and Chiefs throughout the fantasy playoffs. All of these either put QBs under duress for most of the game or limited perimeter WRs. Given how Pickens plays, he’s more of a mid-range WR2 with upside to finish the fantasy season.

Should you trust Tyreek Hill during the playoffs?

My instant reaction to a question like this is usually, “Yes.”

You’re pushing for a championship, so you start your fantasy stars or whichever adage about roster management you abide by. However, when I thought back to Maimi’s Thursday night game, I had to rethink Hill’s “star” status.

Sure, Hill caught the pass and scored. He’s found the end zone in three of his last four games. However, Tua Tagovailoa originally threw it to Jonnu Smith. Physics gets the assist for Hill cresting 20 PPR points. Even worse, Thanksgiving night was Hill’s first top-10 finish since Miami’s season opener.

At this same point last year, Hill’s opportunity and production cemented him as a locked-in starter each week.

• Target Share (through Week 13): 32.5% (2023), 21.2% (2024)

• Air Yard Share: 43.3%, 36.7%

• Explosive Catch Share: 46.8%, 30.4%

By Week 13 in ’23, Hill had 1,481 receiving yards. Right now, he’s accrued less than half of the same total (654). But his decline isn’t (completely) on him. He’s had to deal with two problems this season. We saw part of the first issue in the touchdown video.

• Jonnu Smith (since Week 8): 21.5% (Target Share), 16 (PPR PPG)

• De’Von Achane: 17.8%, 21.9

• Jaylen Waddle: 14.0%, 11.7

Last year’s ancillary contributors included Braxton Berrios and Durham Smythe. Neither cracked 400 yards, and the duo combined for a single score. This year features upgrades at both positions as Achane, in his second season, has more targets than his teammate (Waddle, 60). Actually, (I pulled this stat for fun) the Dolphins’ RB has earned more looks than every single Packers receiver this season.

Anyway, both Achane’s and Smith’s presences draw the focus away from Hill after a season of averaging 100 yards and nearly a touchdown. In addition, Tagovailoa’s stylistic shift puts a cap on Hill’s potential.

On the one hand, Tagovailoa’s ability to let the ball fly at the back step of his drop is a benefit to the passing game. His 2.31-second average time to throw (mostly) keeps him upright. He entered Week 13 with the fourth-fewest pressures. On the other hand, his shorter passes put more on the receiver. Any dip in YAC or receiving efficiency has a stronger impact on boxscore results.

Ultimately, we just need to reset our expectations for Hill.

Yes, Hill is seeing fewer attempts from Tua relative to years past. However, Hill has 43.0% of the end-zone targets from Tagovailoa over their last six games. If the Dolphins’ QB does look deep, Hill has the same number of targets as the rest of the pass-catchers combined. However, his usage brings him into the high-end WR2 category rather than a top-six option. Fortunately, Miami will face secondaries susceptible to explosive receptions (HOU and NYJ) over the next two weeks.

With the Dolphins still fighting for a playoff spot, Hill should be a staple of championship rosters through the last month of the season.

Did Jaxon Smith-Njigba take DK Metcalf’s job?

I maintain that if DK Metcalf were healthy, we’d think about this differently. Last week was just his third game back from an MCL sprain, and a recent shoulder injury hampered him on Sunday. And yet, Jaxon Smith-Njigba keeps making me second-guess myself.

To be fair, the sophomore receiver wasn’t consistently making these types of plays earlier in the season. Yes, JSN moved ahead of Tyler Lockett in the pecking order. The former Buckeye also had outbursts of 12 and 16 targets in the first four weeks of the season. However, outburst fits the description of those outings. With target counts under five or yardage totals around 50 the week after, Smith-Njigba was tough to trust in our lineups. Before Metcalf’s injury, he was one of the worst WR2s to roster.

• Target Share: 21.0% (29th out of 29 qualifying WRs – min. 20.0% target share)

• Air Yard Share: 21.0% (28th)

• aDOT: 8.3 (26th)

• Yards per Route Run: 1.10 (28th)

JSN was the “anti-Pickens” to rehash the earlier discussion above. His low receiving aDOT with lesser volume relative to his peers capped his ceiling. Through almost two months of action, Seattle’s so-called WR2 hadn’t had a reception of 20 air yards or more. So, when Metcalf went down, it was easy to project Smith-Njigba for more touches. However, the increase in his route depth was the more encouraging change.

No one’s expecting Smith-Njigba to fight through man/press coverage like Metcalf. But his route-running skill set allowed him to win downfield as if the hulking WR was still on the field. In Metcalf’s absence, every stat for JSN ticked up. He caught 13 passes in two weeks. Ten of them resulted in a first down. He had 257 yards after his first five games but put up 249 across back-to-back contests. With Metcalf returning, folks assumed the early-season status quo would be back in place. But the young gun wasn’t hearing any of that noise.

• Targets per Route Run: 23.0% (Metcalf), 22.0% (Smith-Njigba)

• Target Share in Obvious Passing Situations: 18.0%, 20.0%

• Red-Zone Target Share: 17.0%, 25.0%

As was the case on Sunday, when Geno Smith needed someone to make a play, JSN was there. He’s now outshined Metcalf in every game with the duo back on the field together.

Concurrently, Seattle has a one-game lead in a tight for the NFC West title. The Seahawks will have to keep up their pass-friendly ways to keep pace with the division. Smith-Njigba stands to benefit from the situation. Even if Metcalf gets back to full strength, JSN is a top-24 option at the position the rest of the way.

How many Browns do you want on your roster for the playoffs?

Never change, Jameis.

No, seriously.

Winston took over when the Browns were on their way to their sixth loss in seven games. It was already time to look toward 2025. Even if he’s only notched two more marks in Cleveland’s win column, we can’t dismiss the improvement on offense. The team shouldn’t move on from Kevin Stefanski (although he might not mind getting away from the drama). More importantly, Winston gives us the confidence to roster Browns’ skill players.

At 43.6 attempts per game, Winston is airing the ball out more than any QB. For reference, Deshaun Watson averaged 30.9 a contest. But it’s not just the volume lending credence to the idea Winston might be our byepocalypse hero. He’s throwing almost two yards farther downfield than Watson on a per-attempt basis (9.2 air yards per attempt versus 7.3). Minus the snow-globe game, Winston has generated over 400 air yards in each of his starts. As a result, his WRs have been near the top in two of the strongest indicators of future success at the position.

• Targets per Game (since Week 8): Jeudy (T-5th-most out of 80 qualifying WRs – min. 50.0% route rate), Moore (7th), Tillman (20th – missed half of Week 12)

• Air Yards per Game: Jeudy (2nd), Moore (5th), Tillman (9th)

Jerry Jeudy’s revenge game was a historic night after a season (career?) of ups and downs. With Cedric Tillman out, Jeudy and Elijah Moore combined for 47.4% of Winston’s throws and 68.7% of his 489 air yards. Despite the divisional rematch against the Steelers in Week 14, they all have places on starting fantasy rosters, with each offering outlets for Winston at every level of the field. And upcoming matchups against the Chiefs (who just got dunked on by Aidan O’Connell) and Bengals set them up for success during the playoffs.

But one of Cleveland’s usual suspects might be left out of the fun.

I kept seeing Nick Chubb on the sideline and expected to see an accompanying report about him taking a trip to the medical tent or locker room. Nope. In a close game, Stefanski went with the hot-hand approach. Jerome Ford took over 40.0% of the totes for the first time since Week 5. Now, to his credit, Ford averaged more yards after contact and had a higher rushing success rate than Chubb. And, for folks with Chubb on their roster, one of the best pure runners in the game found the end zone as a receiver. But the sudden split is a concern.

Other than their Week 16 rematch against the Bengals, Cleveland will face teams at or below the league average in fantasy points allowed to RBs in three of their next four games. Last night’s results notwithstanding, the Browns also have the third-highest red-zone passing rate. Chubb will need as many carries as he can get. However, after this past Monday, he’s a mid-range RB2 without a secure workload.