BitMEX launches its “Prediction Markets”, allowing traders to forecast outcomes of significant events, including the FTX recovery rate and potential SEC approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Major crypto derivatives exchange BitMex has expanded its products to include a new offering called Prediction Markets, where traders can predict the possible outcome of real-world events ranging from crypto to traditional finance and make returns from their predictions.
BitMEX announced that its new cryptocurrency derivatives product opened for trading on the platform on Sept. 13. Three initial prediction contracts, focusing on subjects currently making headlines in the crypto industry, are already available to traders.
The first contract, which expires in December 2026, will allow users to predict the recovery rate of FTX’s customer claims. FTX, currently involved in bankruptcy proceedings, collapsed in November 2021 with users’ assets stuck on the platform. The embattled company seeks approval to liquidate $3.4 billion worth of crypto assets to settle creditors.
The second contract will see traders betting on the potential approval or denial of a spot Bitcoin ETF by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). While the Commission has given the green light to futures-based Bitcoin ETFs, the regulator is yet to approve a similar product based on spots.
Institutions such as BlackRock, Invesco, and WisdomTree have pending filings with the SEC, with Franklin Templeton recently joining the list. This contract expires on Oct. 17, 2023. Meanwhile, Grayscale’s recent win against the SEC gave some hope to investors who believed the agency might soon grant a spot Bitcoin ETF application.
The third contract offers users a chance to predict whether the former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried will be sentenced to prison, with the contract expiring on Dec. 25, 2026. Bankman-Fried, who faces many criminal charges, maintains his not-guilty plea. Judge Lewis Kaplan denied SBF’s repeated requests for temporary release before his trial scheduled for Oct. 3, 2023.