By now, we all know the story of the Kansas City Chiefs’ season. They’re on an unprecedented run of wins in close games.
For betters who trust the Chiefs, it hasn’t been such a magical run. The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in seven straight games. The Chiefs are an incredible 12-1 straight up but just 4-8-1 against the spread, according to Action Network’s standings. That kind of split is rare. The Chiefs are winning every week, just not for bettors. This week they’re a 4-point favorite at the Cleveland Browns. Can they win again without covering the spread?
Here’s a look at Week 15 of the NFL season from a betting perspective, with all odds from BetMGM:
Thursday night: 49ers try to stay alive
The San Francisco 49ers have a 7.5% chance to make the playoffs, according to DVOA’s projections. The odds are long but the only thing the 49ers can control is winning out. And last week, they had that desperation. The 49ers dominated the Chicago Bears 38-13. Say what you want about the Bears, but it’s a team that almost beat the Packers, Vikings and Lions in the three games leading up to getting smashed by the 49ers.
The Los Angeles Rams come to Santa Clara with a better playoff outlook, but it’s not great either. A win last week against the Buffalo Bills helped though. The 49ers are 2.5-point favorites, and a lot of that is based on the belief that the 49ers are a much better team than their record indicates. If last week is an indication, we’re going to get good performances out of the 49ers until they’re eliminated.
Interesting underdog: Can Dolphins stay alive?
The hottest quarterback in football, if not Josh Allen, might be Tua Tagovailoa. Since returning from a concussion, he has a 114.1 passer rating. In his last four games he has 11 touchdowns with no interceptions. For the season he’s completing 73.9% of his passes.
Tagovailoa’s Miami Dolphins aren’t in great shape for a playoff spot, but they’re still alive. They probably need to win out, and that includes beating the Houston Texans on the road Sunday. The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog against a Texans team that hasn’t been impressive in weeks, but it coming off a bye. The Dolphins have some offensive line injury issues, and that’s a worry against a good Texans pass rush. We’ll see if the Dolphins’ desperation, led by Tagovailoa’s hot passing, is enough to get a big road win.
‘Other’ game of the week: Steelers take on Eagles
Why did the NFL schedule this game and Bills-Lions at the same time? This would have been a great featured game in the early window. Anyway, the battle of Pennsylvania has some high stakes and two good teams. The Pittsburgh Steelers are trying to get a division title and are still in the mix for the AFC’s No. 1 seed. The Philadelphia Eagles are keeping the pressure on the Lions for the No. 1 seed in the NFC. It should be a good game, though the spread is a bit high. The Eagles are 5.5-point favorites over the Steelers. That speaks to how well the Eagles have played. It also factors in how thin the Steelers are at receiver if George Pickens misses another game. But everyone knows that Mike Tomlin’s teams usually compete. It should be a fun game, though completely overshadowed in the late window.
Game of the year?: Bills-Lions could be Super Bowl, too
Everyone outside of Philadelphia, Kansas City and a couple other markets would sign up for Bills vs. Lions in Super Bowl LIX. We get a nice potential Super Bowl preview on Sunday. The total of 54.5 is the highest total in the NFL this season. It should be a fun one.
Josh Allen is well on his way to his first NFL MVP award. The Lions have the better offense though. The Lions are a 2.5-point favorite, and the fact that they’re not a full field goal is a nod to how good Buffalo is. It also factors in Detroit’s many injuries in their defensive front seven.
Player prop of the week: A.J. Brown’s receiving yards
It’s not a creative angle but it’s one that is fairly reliable: A receiver complains, and the next game he gets fed. Last week A.J. Brown said the Eagles’ biggest issue on offense is “passing,” which was taken as a slight on Jalen Hurts, but Brown said that he wasn’t singling out his quarterback. Regardless, there was a message sent. Brown has just 109 yards in Philadelphia’s last two games, but everyone knows he’s capable of huge games. His yardage total for Sunday’s game against Pittsburgh is 81.5. Would it surprise anyone if Brown has a huge game?
Sunday night: Seahawks are underdogs at home
The Seattle Seahawks are 4-0 since the bye, coming off a couple of road wins in a row. They’ve taken over first place in the NFC West. You wouldn’t know it by this week’s spread.
The Seahawks are 2.5-point underdogs against the Green Bay Packers. That line was Seahawks +3 earlier this week. That’s a lot of respect for the Packers, and they are a very good team. They were close to winning at Detroit last week and if they can nearly knock off the Lions, they can beat the Seahawks too. But Seattle has one of the few remaining notable home-field advantages in the NFL and they’re coming along fast with first-year head coach Mike Macdonald. It’s hard to take any favorite playing at Seattle.
We get two Monday night games late in the season, and it would be nice if the matchups were better. The NFL didn’t get dealt the best hand on the two games it picked.
In the first game, the Minnesota Vikings face the Chicago Bears. Nobody knew the Vikings would be 11-2 at this point. They’re 7-point favorites over the Bears, who had been playing better before getting blown out by San Francisco last week. The Bears did take the Vikings to overtime on Nov. 24 before losing 30-27.
The late game has two struggling teams. The Atlanta Falcons have lost four in a row, gave away first place in the NFC South and have questions about whether to bench Kirk Cousins, who are in a major slump. But the Las Vegas Raiders are even worse, and that’s why they’re 4-point underdogs at home to the Falcons. The Raiders have to turn to Desmond Ridder at quarterback after losing their top two, Gardner Minshew II and Aidan O’Connell. The Raiders have lost nine in a row and other than a near miss against the Kansas City Chiefs two weeks ago, there haven’t been many signs of life. If the Falcons can’t win and cover, there’s probably no hope for them the rest of the season.
