After a New York Times report, Polymarket odds of President Joe Biden dropping out of the elections skyrocketed to over 70%.
Early on Wednesday, Polymarket bettors placed wages on a 55% chance that Joe Biden would step down from the presidential race. Those odds massively improved following a report that Biden was mulling his future in the White House post-November.
According to an unnamed member of Biden’s camp cited by the New York Times, the U.S. President sees beating Donald Trump on the ballot as an unlikely outcome. Shortly after, White House spokesperson Andrew Bates claimed the story was untrue on X.
That claim is absolutely false. If the New York Times had provided us with more than 7 minutes to comment we would have told them so. https://t.co/SRTYIVTy7v
— Andrew Bates (@AndrewJBates46) July 3, 2024
Biden’s health has been questioned several times, contributing to the momentum of Polymarket’s “Biden drops out of presidential race?” pool. So far, punters have piled over $10 million worth of bets on Biden’s future.
Before the CNN debate which many experts from both sides of the political spectrum agree was a disaster for Biden, betting activity implied a 20% to 35% chance he would leave the race.
“He knows if he has two more events like that, we’re in a different place,” the New York Times report said.
Polymarket has emerged as a premier decentralized betting platform for users to wager on real-life outcomes. Similar bets were noticed during the spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETF saga, and markets currently exist for other events, such as approvals for spot Ethereum (ETH) funds.
