Tropical Storm Leslie: Latest updates, spaghetti models, possible impacts in Jacksonville


Here is the latest update on Tropical Storm Leslie.

As of the National Hurricane Center’s 5 a.m. AST advisory, on the forecast track, the center of Leslie is expected to pass near or over the Azores late Sunday or Monday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts.

According to USA TODAY Network data, the storm’s center was located 2,114 miles east of Jacksonville as of 5 a.m. AST.

The latest NHC advisory says Leslie is moving toward the northeast near 24 mph and a northeastward to eastward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days.

Cone of uncertainty: See the latest graphic from the NHC

Satellite images: See latest satellite image from NOAA, for a clearer picture of the storm’s size

Expected impacts from Tropical Storm Leslie

The advisory warns of the following dangers:

None.

Where is Tropical Storm Leslie?

Here are the latest details on Leslie, according to the NHC’s 5 a.m. AST advisory.

  • Location: 2,114 miles east of Jacksonville

  • Maximum sustained winds: 50 mph

  • Movement: Northeast at 24 mph

Leslie’s estimated minimum central pressure is 1,002 millibars.

Anything greater than 979 MB is one indicator a storm could cause minimal damage. According to the NHC, the minimum central pressure of a storm is not necessarily a hazard, but it could indicate whether a storm will intensify in the future. Strengthening usually follows a drop in pressure, and a weakening usually follows an increase in pressure.

What does the cone of uncertainty represent?

The cone of uncertainty, posted by the NHC, shows some possible paths of the storm’s center. As you monitor the forecast, keep in mind that the impact of Leslie may be felt well outside the cone – and that storm tracks go outside of the cone about a third of the time.

Watches, warnings

Spaghetti models: Track Leslie here

This auto-updated graphic shows how various spaghetti models are tracking Tropical Storm Leslie:

If the storm tracker is not not loading, click here.

Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.

Helpful hurricane resources and links

  • Get your home ready: Here is how to prepare your home for a hurricane, from well in advance to just before a storm’s arrival

  • Need to prepare for a hurricane? Here is what you should have in a disaster supply kit

  • Hurricane preparedness list: If a storm is coming, here is what you need to do now

  • Video: Helpful tips for a hurricane survival kit

  • Hurricanes, typhoons, and cyclones: What’s an invest and why do they keep saying tropical cyclone?

  • Officials encourage residents to assemble a hurricane kit early, storing enough supplies to last at least three days. Doing so ensures there are adequate supplies available on store shelves and prevents a rush – and shortages – that regularly occur when a storm is imminent.

This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: Tropical Storm Leslie: Follow the Storm



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