In a country as polarized as the U.S., independents are a sort of electoral holy grail. Pundits, practitioners, and certainly candidates know that they can decide elections.
It is therefore puzzling that so much of the recent 100-days’ coverage of the Trump administration focuses on President Trump’s topline numbers in national public opinion polls. It might be more useful to look at polls of a state that actually cast their electoral college votes for the president and, within them, drill down among independents.
Trump won Ohio by 11 points in 2024. But the news among Ohio independents today is not especially good.
According to the latest Bowling Green State University-YouGov poll of 800 registered Ohio voters, Trump is underwater among independents. Just 40 percent approve, while 47 percent disapprove of his job performance. Just five months ago, 56 percent of Ohio independents reported voting for Trump.
Potential trouble among independent voters is apparent throughout the survey. More than half of Ohio independents (53 percent) think the country is on the wrong track, with nearly half (48 percent) saying that inflation or the economy in general is America’s most important problem and another 13 percent saying threats to democracy.
Asked about their personal economic situation, more than half of Ohio independents (52 percent) believe it has worsened. Their assessment of the U.S. economy is more dire. Nearly three-quarters (73 percent) believe it has gotten worse.
Asked about the Trump administration’s tariff policies, more than half of Ohio independents (51 percent) believe they hurt the U.S., and 53 percent believe they will hurt them personally. Specifically asked about a 25 percent tariff on Mexican and Canadian imports, 61 percent of Ohio independents are opposed.
Tariffs imposed on China are more popular among Ohio independents, with over half (56 percent) supportive, but our question asked about an earlier 10 percent tariff on Chinese goods — far short of the current 145 percent tariff.
Overall, Ohio independents are skeptical they will benefit from the new tariffs. Only about a third think that tariffs will benefit the middle class (35 percent) and small businesses (34 percent). Meanwhile, half (51 percent) believe that large corporations will benefit from tariffs, while 72 percent believe they will benefit the wealthy.
To be sure, Ohio independents are pleased with some Trump administration policies. Two-thirds (65 percent) support federal recognition that there are only two sexes, male and female. Over half (56 percent) support Trump’s declaration of migrants crossing the southern border to be a national emergency. These are not the pocketbook issues that tend to decide elections, however.
A single summary question asked whether Trump’s first 100 days in office have been successful. Over half of Ohio independents (53 percent) said unsuccessful, while 47 percent said successful.
In a state he won by double digits in November, Trump is underwater among independents.
It may not be time for Republicans to grab a life preserver, but it’s certainly time to take notice. And Democrats are likely to see a big opportunity.
Dr. Melissa K. Miller is a professor in the Department of Political Science at Bowling Green State University.